DealNetM&A intelligence for the market behind work
CharlesBedardLLC · DealNet

Signals Index

Winter 26/27 · Quarterly read on the market behind work: deal volume, signals and multiples, 2026 YTD against the 5-year average
1 · Index Update

Buyers are paying for proof, not promise

Where the market is moving: deal share vs price

A-HotB-WarmC-CoolBubble size = 2026 signals

Top 6 hot

Top 6 cooling

Deal volume = pts of deal share vs 5-yr · Multiples = 2026 EV/Rev vs own 5-yr median (fewer than 5 deals held Warm) · Signals = 2026 count. Source: DealNet

EV/Revenue range by sector

5-yr avg, 25th–75th pct2026 YTDDot = median
Sectors with at least 5 disclosed 2026 deals. Source: DealNet

Change in share of deals vs 5-yr avg

Gaining shareLosing share
Percentage points of all tracked deals. Source: DealNet

2026 signals by quarter

Source: DealNet

Signal forecast · Winter 26/27

Sector grades

SectorShare 5-yrShare 2026Deal volumeEV/Rev 5-yrEV/Rev 2026MultiplesSignalsSignalsGrade
Share = sector's share of all tracked deals (a deal can sit in more than one sector). EV/Rev = median disclosed EV/Revenue; 2026 shown when n ≥ 5. Source: DealNet

Method notes

    2 · Intro

    How to read the index

    Every quarter the analyst team reads the signals behind every deal in the market behind work: who is buying, who is raising, which leaders are moving, and what buyers are paying. The Signals Index turns 13,800+ tracked transactions and 2,700 2026 signals into one view of where the market is heating up and where it is cooling.

    Behind work means every market a business runs on, from backoffice to frontoffice: Work Tech software plus the tech-enabled services, outsourcing and professional services firms that keep work running. Each of 14 sectors and 11 industry verticals gets a grade built from three inputs.

    Monitoring Signals Insights: signals tracked, scored and triaged, then acted on early to create the deal
    How the signals are monitored. Leadership changes, hiring, funding, partners and bankers show up months before a deal. Every signal is tracked, scored and triaged into an action.
    Behind the comps: databases, associations and conferences, and directories reviewed for the comps
    How the comps are built. Deals and multiples are drawn from databases, associations, conferences and directories across software and services, backoffice to frontoffice.
    Deal volumeShare of all tracked deals in 2026 against the sector's 5-year average share. Shares, not raw counts, so changes in data coverage don't move the grade.
    Multiples2026 median EV/Revenue against the sector's own 5-year median. Needs 5 or more disclosed deals, otherwise held at Warm.
    Signals2026 leadership, product, funding, M&A and pressure signals matched to companies in the sector.
    A-Hot

    Hot on two inputs and Cool on none. Buyers are active and paying.

    B-Warm

    Mixed read. One input is running hot, or all three sit near the middle.

    C-Cool

    Cool on two or more inputs. Fewer deals, fewer signals or lower prices than history.

    Each input is ranked against the other sectors in thirds: top third Hot, middle Warm, bottom Cool. Multiples are also shown by tier, Public, Investor-Backed and Main Street, so owners and operators can see the gap between where they sit and where the premium sits, and which KPIs close it.

    Start with the Explorer and filter by sector, vertical, business model or buyer. Then go deeper into the pages that matter to your next move.

    3 · Explorer

    Build your own view

    Pick any mix of sectors, verticals, business models and buyers. Every tile and chart below recalculates for that slice, 2026 YTD against the 5-year average.

    Sector
    Industry vertical
    Business model
    Buyer
    Show

    Slice share of all deals, by business model

    Share of every deal tracked that year, so coverage changes cancel out. Source: DealNet

    Slice EV/Revenue, 5-yr vs 2026

    5-yr avg2026 YTDDot = median

    Grades in this slice

    SectorDeal volumeMultiplesSignalsGrade
    4 · Valuation

    Public vs Investor-Backed vs Main Street

    The premium sits with scale, recurring revenue and margin. Each step down the ladder roughly cuts the revenue multiple in half or more, and the KPIs below show what moves a company up a rung.

    EV/Revenue by tier, 5-yr avg vs latest

    5-yr avgLatest
    Public: SaaS Capital Index (latest month) · Investor-Backed: GF Data lower middle market · Main Street: BVR DealStats

    EV/Revenue range by business model

    5-yr avg2026 YTDDot = median
    Source: DealNet

    Public HCM comps and r-value (Rule of 40)

    TickerEV/RevEV/EBITDARev growthEBITDA marginr-value
    5 · Industry Verticals

    Vertical specialists are taking share

    Vertical groups: share of deals, 5-yr vs 2026

    5-yr avg2026 YTD

    Share of deals by vertical, 5-yr vs 2026

    5-yr avg2026 YTD
    Share of all tracked deals with a named vertical focus. Source: DealNet

    Specialist vs generalist EV/Revenue

    5-yr avg2026 YTDDot = median

    Where 2026 deals cluster: sector × vertical

    2026 YTD deal count. Darker cells hold more deals. Source: DealNet
    6 · Investment Trends

    Capital is selective and early

    H1 funding rounds by stage

    H1 dollars raised ($M)

    Dashed line = 5-yr H1 average. Source: Venero HR Tech data

    H1 rounds by category, 5-yr avg vs 2026

    Category5-yr H1 avg2026 H1Change

    2026 funding signals by quarter

    7 · M&A Themes + Drivers

    Five themes moving M&A behind work

    What drives a premium

    Deal-type mix, % of deals

    5-yr avg2026 YTD

    Buyer mix by year

    StrategicInvestor-Backed + PEPublic
    2025 omitted: buyer type incomplete in source. Source: DealNet
    8 · Tracker

    Every sector and vertical

    Tap a column header to sort.

    n = disclosed EV/Revenue deals. Source: DealNet